Kerala Local Body Results Signal Trouble For LDF In 2026

A breakdown of the UDF resurgence and the road to the 2026 Assembly Elections

Hello,

It’s been a while since I posted; and I’m pretty sure some of you have forgotten I used to write here. I’ve not really stopped writing though. For those interested I still make occasional contributions in Swarajya (mostly available here, since some are co-authoured) but otherwise busy with work, which by the way I will come to in some other edition.

With Kerala Local Body Election results being today, I thought this is the right time for me to write again here. Do note this is a different type of article, written in “Axios” style. For those unfamiliar, Axios is an American News Media site which uses an unconventional structured reporting style, sometimes with hilarious results. I’ve adopted this ‘structured’ and pointed approach for the substantive part of this post, which is the broad “take” I have for the results. More than happy to hear thoughts about this “style” which will likely be a one-off, like the Monsoon Edition, 2021.

Further rants may (or may not) follow.

Thank You 🙂

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What Happened: The results of the Kerala Local Body Elections saw the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) sweep, with the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) losing out and the BJP gaining.

Why it matters: Since 1995, the coalition that wins the local body polls has consistently gone on to win the Assembly elections due just months later.

The ruling LDF Government under Chief Minister Pinrayi Vijayan had swept the last Assembly election in 2021, winning 99 seats. The victory had made Pinrayi the first Chief Minister to win a successive term in office in the state.

However, Pinrayi’s second term has been marred with missteps. The government attempted to mitigate the anti-incumbency by increasing welfare pension, but that appears to have failed.

The local body results, combined with the bad performance in the 2024 General Elections may mean that the Left will lose the only state in which it holds power.

By the numbers: UDF won 504 Grama Panchayats, compared to LDF’s 341. UDF won 54 municipalities, compared to 28 by the LDF. The NDA won its first ever corporation - Thiruvananthapuram, and had creditable performances elsewhere.

The only corporation LDF won was Kozhikode, where it could only maintain a plurality of wards (35) compared to UDF (28) and NDA (13). By all measures, the day was full of disappointments for LDF, while the UDF gained significant momentum into the Assembly Election.

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Between the lines: Thiruvananthapuram will doubtlessly get the national attention for BJP’s victory there (a first win at the corporation level for the state unit), but the state unit has also managed to retain Palakkad and ensure plurality in Thrippunithara Municipalities.

But the BJP failed to make inroads in Thrissur, barely making a scratch (8 wards) while UDF swept (33 wards) and winning just one Gram Panchayat. Thrissur had in 2024 Lok Sabha elections delivered the first ever seat for the party in the state, and gains were expected based on the 70,000+ lead Suresh Gopi had secured. However, considering demographics, organisational strength, election dynamics and personal popularity of Suresh Gopi, it was not surprising.

Rajeev Chandrashekhar, who lost Thiruvananthapuram by 16,000 votes has been credited with the win in Thiruvananthapuram.

The victory in Thiruvananthapuram will come to the personal credit of Rajeev Chandrashekhar, who became the BJP President after the excellent performance of the BJP in 2024 GE in the state.

The other side: UDF’s victory will also raise questions on who the front’s Chief Minister candidate will be. The Congress is led in the Assembly by VD Satheeshan, a 5-time MLA and High Court Lawyer who has positive perception in the state. However, KC Venugopal, the powerful General Secretary (Organisation), Former Home Minister and KPCC President Ramesh Chennithala and a host of others are known to be interested. The confusion over the CM candidate will likely lead to infighting, harming their prospects in the Assembly Election.

LDF has very few bright spots in what has been a terrible result for them. The “core” vote base is still existent for the CPI(M) the main party and anchor of the alliance, but it has clearly lost a significant section of Hindu votes to the BJP, and the minority vote it made gains in has left it en masse to UDF. Sample - it swept all 33 wards of the District Panchayat in Muslim dominant Malappuram and won comfortable majorities in DP level. (DP level votes are generally considered purely political as the wards are to the size of an Assembly Constituency).

Zoom Out: After recent setbacks in Maharashtra and Haryana, this is a lifeline for Congress. For the Left, however, Kerala is the last bastion. With losses in Bengal and Tripura, an LDF defeat in 2026 would leave the CPI(M) without power in any state.

With Naxalism also being wiped out, the larger Communist movement in its distinct form seems to be on its deathbed.

The Long-Term Picture: If the UDF were to sweep to victory in the Assembly Elections, the CPI(M) will be put under significant stress at an organisational level. This, combined with the increasing social and cultural friction between communities will benefit the BJP in the 2029 General Elections.

The Bottomline: Local body results are generally a harbinger of the Assembly polls and all indications are of a UDF sweep. The BJP will likely gain, and the biggest loser of the night was CPI(M) who has been left bare.

PS: Please note that the images (except for that which features Rajeev Chandrashekhar are generated using AI.

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