2021 Kerala Assembly Election

A one-stop destination to understand some facts of the 2021  Assembly Elections in Kerala 
*Under Reconstruction to include results and more*
2021 Kerala Election Results:

































You can continue reading the pre-result analysis here:
 

Kerala AE 2021 AE.jpeg

Kerala is preparing to elect the 15th Legislative Assembly of the State on April 06, 2021. The State is witnessing an election like never before as the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) - led Left Democratic Front (LDF) looks to break the cycle of Kerala Politics and be re-elected into office. The Congress (INC) led United Democratic Front (UDF) is its primary opposition that is trying its very best to unseat the them, with Bhartiya Janata Party's (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA) waiting in the wings. Since the current two-front system has come into existence in the State in the 80s, not a single incumbent has been re-elected.

History is not however the only challenge that the LDF has to overcome in the current situation. The narratives against the LDF Government including a fishing scandal, gold smuggling scandal and much, much more. They are however unfazed and their slogan quite self-assuredly reiterates that they are on their way back: "LDF Urappannu" (LDF, For Sure.) While multiple pre-election surveys show that the LDF has an edge, elections are not wholly predictable and can swing one way or another.

 

Times have radically changed as political equations and bases have been radically altered by the growth of the BJP and changing economic profiles and demographics.  The UDF and more accurately, the Congress faces an existential crisis. Without governance in the State or in the Centre, the Congress will find it exceedingly hard to retain both its workers and crucially, its leaders. 

The 2021 Elections are likely to be an epoch making one as it will guide the direction of the next few decades of Kerala Politics. The UDF/LDF pattern of Kerala politics will be irrevocably broken. What the future holds is unknown. Meanwhile, you can check out this page to have a deeper knowledge of the State and its dynamics. 

 
Kerala AE 2016. (2020_07_13 06_33_24 UTC

2016 Assembly Election Result

Political Profile of Kerala 

Kerala Politics has long been divided into two fronts: the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) since the 80s. However, the BJP which has been a marginal player in the state's political scene has now become a viable third front which is securing a significant share of the votes since 2014. 

'Aikya Keralam' or United Kerala was formed by integrating the Travancore-Cochin Province with the Malabar District  and the Kasargode Taluk of South Canara District of the Madras Province were integrated to create the United State of Kerala. The first election in 1956-57 resulted in the first democratically elected Communist Government in Asia. However, education and land reforms resulted in the 'Vimochana' Samaram or the 'Liberation Struggle" led by the opposition and social organisations opposed to them which resulted in the first dismissal of a State Government. Since then, the only elected Government to complete its term was the C. Achutha Menon Government of the Communist Party of India (CPI) - Congress (INC) combine which governed from 1970 to 1977. This 'United Front' Government was in fact the first one to be re-elected with K. Karunkaran of the Congress becoming Chief Minister. However, no front since has ever been re-elected. While E.K. Nayanar and V.S. Achuthanadan came close in 1991 and 2011 to a possible re-election for a CPM-led LDF Government, it seems that Pinrayi Vijayan may rewrite history in 2021. 

There is obviously a lot more to politics in Kerala.

 

To know, Read More Here

Electoral Statistics

 

It is important to have a view of the results of previous elections in making future predictions and creating expectations. An understanding of electoral history will benefit greatly in understanding political dynamics as well.

 

An understanding of vote shares across the State will also benefit in having a more grounded analysis of the possibilities. Both UDF and LDF  has enjoyed an extremely close vote share in the state which has now been disrupted by the BJP, as you can see here:

In recent past, we have witnessed the electorate swinging from one extreme to another, as can be seen in the maps given below. Further statistics is available in the link:

To Know,  Read More Here.

 
 
 
Comparison of Election Results in Kerala

Manifesto of the the major fronts

*Unfortunately all three are in Malayalam

Maps

You can view this and other maps in higher detail here.

 
Kerala AE 2020 LP.jpeg
Kerala AE 2019 assembly.jpeg

If the 2020 Local Body polls were aggregated on constituency basis.

If the 2019 General Elections were disaggregated on constituency basis 

Source: Manorama

Lok Sabha 2019 Party wise (2020_07_13 06

The 2019 General Election Results

BJP 2019 vote share (2020_07_13 06_33_24

The 2019 BJP Vote Share

Lok sabha LDF to 2019 (2020_07_13 06_33_

The 2019 LDF Vote Share

Lok sabha UDF to 2019 (2020_07_13 06_33_

The 2019 UDF Vote Share

lOK SABHA 2014 (2020_07_13 06_33_24 UTC)

The 2014 General Election Results

lOK SABHA 2009 (2020_07_13 06_33_24 UTC)

The 2009 General Election Results